THIS AVALANCHE FORECAST EXPIRED ON December 25, 2017 @ 11:53 pm
Avalanche Forecast published on December 25, 2017 @ 6:53 am
Issued by Mark Dundas - Flathead National Forest

Whitefish Range
Swan Range
Flathead Range and Glacier National Park

How to read the forecast

Despite recent benign weather our snowpack structure remains weak with human triggered slides possible resulting in large and destructive avalanches. The best holiday gift to a friend and loved one is careful evaluation of snow structure and terrain while dealing with this complex Persistent Slab problem.

2. Moderate

?

Above 6500 ft.
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

2. Moderate

?

5000-6500 ft.
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

2. Moderate

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3500-5000 ft.
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
    Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
  • 1. Low
  • 2. Moderate
  • 3. Considerable
  • 4. High
  • 5. Extreme
Avalanche Problem 1: Persistent Slab
  • Type ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

Observations from around the area confirm that our persistent slab problem has not gone away. Last weeks bountiful storm formed 2 to 4 foot slabs on several inches of weak sugary snow at all elevations and aspects. As time elapses these slabs are becoming less reactive to human triggering but snowpit tests reveal that human triggered slides are still possible with resulting slides large and destructive. Therefore careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding and conservative decision making are essential. With a relatively thin snowpack it takes just a few minutes of digging to reveal this weak snow structure firsthand. When in doubt, terrain management is the easiest and safest way to answer this complex problem.

Forecast discussion

With sunshine, powder conditions and the holiday season upon us it is easy to get a bit complacent. Our snowpack is not exhibiting the warning signs of instability that it announced last week such as shooting cracks (photo 1 photo 2) and collapsing (photo). Digging into the snowpack paints a different picture with a 2 to 4 foot slab of snow on several inches of weak sugary snow in many locations. The slab is settling out and gaining a bit of strength but the weak snow remains weak. Stability test results show propagation within the slab confirming that a human triggered slide is possible with resulting slides being large and destructive. Given the serious consequences of triggering a Persistent Slab, carefully evaluate the snow structure and terrain.

Join us at Stumptown Snowboards in Whitefish on January 3 at 7:00 pm for a free, engaging, and entertaining 1 hour avalanche awareness presentation. Details here

Weather and CURRENT CONDITIONS
weather summary

A storm passing to the south of us may produce a few flurries but otherwise expect a cold dry Christmas. Currently, northeasterly winds are light with partly cloudy skies and no new snow in the past 24 hours. Tomorrow will be dry with temperatures a few degrees warmer than today. Active weather returns mid-week lasting into the weekend.

Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast Produced in partnership with the Missoula NWS
For 5000 ft. to 7000 ft.
Monday Monday Night Tuesday
Cloud Cover: Mostly cloudy and cold. Mostly cloudy and cold. Mostly cloudy and cold.
Temperatures: 5 to 10 deg. F. -10 to 5 deg. F. 8 to 13 deg. F.
Wind Direction: Northeast Southeast Southwest
Wind Speed: 0 to 10 mph 0 to 10 mph 0 to 10 mph
Snowfall: 0 in. 0 in. 0 in.
Snow Line:
Disclaimer

This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires at midnight on the posted day unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.