Avalanche Forecast published on November 14, 2015 @ 11:32 am
Issued by Erich Peitzsch - Flathead National Forest

Whitefish Range
Swan Range
Flathead Range and Glacier National Park

How to read the forecast

The warm and wet storm will continue through today (Saturday) with snow above 6000-6500 ft. and rain below. New snow and wind will likely create wind slabs near ridges and in gullies at upper elevations. Warming and rain will also create an upside down snowpack at upper elevations. At mid-elevations (4500-6000 ft.) rain has begun to melt the existing early season snowpack. Continue to pay close attention to signs of instability like cracking, collapsing, and recent avalanche activity.

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Above 6500 ft.

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5000-6500 ft.

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3500-5000 ft.
Forecast discussion

I was waiting to have mashed potatoes at Thanksgiving dinner, but I was served some this morning in the southern Whitefish Range in the form of wet, heavy snow. While the rain has melted quite a bit of the mid-elevation snowpack there is snow up high and certainly enough for avalanches to occur.  The northern part of the advisory areas has received the lion's share of the precip which, at the upper most elevations, still translates to a substantial amount of snow. At upper elevations this new snow combined with wind is likely forming wind slabs near the tops of ridges and in gullies. Rising temperatures and rain on snow also created an upside-down snowpack at upper elevations thus creating a storm slab avalanche problem as well. So, pay attention to these changing conditions like wind slab formation and warming and how it affects snow stability. Hunters and climbers should also be aware of changing condtions during the early season as you venture higher into the mountains. 

The early season is a great time to practice your transceiver skills. You can practice anywhere, and all of the grasses and bushes sticking up out of the snow makes it easy for your partner to hide his/her transceiver. Speaking of practice, it's also a great time to start brushing away the cobwebs in the part of your brain that thinks about avalanches, and attend one of the upcoming classes this fall. Check here for a calendar. The next avalanche awareness class is this Friday, November 20 at 7:00 pm at the Stonefly Lounge in Coram. Many of these classes are hosted by local shops and retailers, and we appreciate their support in helping educate backcountry users. 

While you are dreaming about powder-filled slopes you might also check out the online tutorials under the Education tab. There are a number of resources from the National Avalanche Center and the American Avalanche Association. There is also a great tutorial from Avalanche Canada as well as their Throttle Decisions video series. 

Also, look for upcoming information on the Snowball from the Friends of the Flathead Avalanche Center (FOFAC). If you are out in the mountains, let us know what you are seeing. How much snow is on the ground? Where was the rain/snow line this past weekend? How were the ice conditions? All of it helps. You can drop us a line at [email protected], call us at 406.387.3821, or submit an observation.

We will not issue danger ratings until we start issuing regular advisories, and this year we will issue advisories 7 days/week. Woohoo! We will likely begin issuing regular advisories within the first couple weeks of December, conditions dependent. .We will continue to update the site with snowpack and avalanche information as conditions warrant and change. 

Weather and CURRENT CONDITIONS
weather summary

This is a warm storm. Air temperatures on Friday crept up from the upper teens/low 20s F to 32º and warmer around 7000 ft. As of Saturday morning, the Whitefish Range received 0.4-1.0 inches of water, the Swan Range 0.3 inches of water, and the Flathead Range and GNP received 0.5 to 2.8 (Flattop SNOTEL in GNP) inches of water. Most of these stations are either below or right at the rain/snow level which means most of this fell as rain. Snow amounts are relatively meager at the 6000-7000 ft. level with most stations reporting 0-5 inches of new snow (that has settled). Winds have been consistently out of the south-southwest at 10-15 mph with gusts to the upper 30 mph range. Mountain temperatures above 6000 ft. this morning range from 31-37º  F throughout the advisory area. 

Disclaimer

This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires at midnight on the posted day unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.