THIS AVALANCHE FORECAST EXPIRED ON February 15, 2015 @ 11:56 pm
Avalanche Forecast published on February 15, 2015 @ 6:56 am
Issued by Todd Hannan - Flathead National Forest

Whitefish Range
Swan Range
Flathead Range and Glacier National Park

How to read the forecast

The avalanche hazard is MODERATE in steep terrain above 5500 feet. Human triggered avalanches are possible in isolated areas where buried surface hoar survived the recent series of warm, wet storm systems. Dig into the snow to determine if this weak layer is present, and where it is choose conservative, low angle terrain.  Below 5500 feet the hazard is LOW.

2. Moderate

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Above 6500 ft.
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

2. Moderate

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5000-6500 ft.
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

1. Low

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3500-5000 ft.
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
    Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
  • 1. Low
  • 2. Moderate
  • 3. Considerable
  • 4. High
  • 5. Extreme
Avalanche Problem 1: Persistent Slab
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In isolated areas a layer of surface hoar formed in late January remains preserved 1-2 feet deep in the snow pack.  Numerous natural avalanches failed on this layer last weekend.  In most locations this surface hoar has since rounded and strengthened, or was destroyed by a series of warm, wet weather systems. There is a lot of uncertainty in the distribution of this layer, so all slopes, particularly more shaded and sheltered areas should be treated as suspect. A quick snowpit should reveal an obvious stripe of weak snow above the thick late January crust (photo). Please let us know where you find it (or dont find it). Where it is present, stick to low angle slopes and avoid convex roll-overs and shallow, rocky terrain. 

Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Wet
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In extended periods of sun exposure, be aware of the increased potential for loose, wet avalanches on sunny slopes. If you notice the surface becoming wet and roller balls form on steep slopes its time to move to a more shaded aspect.

recent observations

Its felt a lot like Spring while navigating the brush and melted out roads at low elevations in the Flathead Range yesterday. We had a good view of several crowns from large upper-elevation avalanches that likely occured last weekend and failed on the weak layer that we were searching for yesterday. In the Pinnacle Creek drainage we found remnants of the late January surface hoar, but was mostly decomposed and failed with out propagation in only one of our extended column tests

On Friday we found a preserved layer of surface hoar in the Whitefish Range that was reactive in stability tests (photo, video).

 

 

Weather and CURRENT CONDITIONS
weather summary

Overnight, a few of our weather stations recorded their first below freezing temperatures in over a week. The north part of the advisory area received up to 2 inches of snow in the past 24 hours. Currently, mountain temperatures range from 22º-31º F and winds are blowing out of the west and southwest at 5-7 mph. Today should see partly cloudy skies with cooler temperatures and winds blowing out of the west at 5-10 mph. We may see a few light snow showers today especially along the Continental Divide.

Today’s weather observations near 6000 feet in the region
0600 temperature: 22-31 deg. F.
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 40-32 deg. F.
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: SW
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 5-15 mph
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 15-30 mph
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 0-2 inches
Total snow depth: 60-89 inches
Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast Produced in partnership with the Missoula NWS
For 5000 ft. to 7000 ft.
Sunday Sunday Night Monday
Cloud Cover: Partly/mostly cloudy, cooler temperatures Mostly cloudy, light snow showers Partly cloudy, continued cooling
Temperatures: 32-42 deg. F. 18-25 deg. F. 28-34 deg. F.
Wind Direction: W/NW N NE
Wind Speed: 3-5 3-4 4-5
Snowfall: 0-1 in. 0-1 in. 0 in.
Snow Line:
Disclaimer

This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires at midnight on the posted day unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.