THIS AVALANCHE FORECAST EXPIRED ON March 4, 2019 @ 11:59 pm
Avalanche Forecast published on March 4, 2019 @ 6:59 am
Issued by Mark Dundas - Flathead National Forest

Whitefish Range
Swan Range
Flathead Range and Glacier National Park

How to read the forecast

Slabs of wind drifted snow from the recent Arctic blast remains our primary avalanche concern. Look and feel for textured dense snow on atypical aspects with cracking a sign of instability. The safest and best riding conditions will be found in areas sheltered from the wind. 

2. Moderate

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Above 6500 ft.
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

2. Moderate

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5000-6500 ft.
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

1. Low

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3500-5000 ft.
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
    Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
  • 1. Low
  • 2. Moderate
  • 3. Considerable
  • 4. High
  • 5. Extreme
Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slab
  • Type ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

The recent Arctic wind event has ended resulting in slabs found in unusual locations. Up to a foot of low-density snow from Friday's storm redistributed by northeast winds has produced a handful of natural and human triggered wind slabs in the past few days. Slabs are resting on a variety of surfaces that are inhibiting bonding with continued cold weather slowing the strengthening process. Areas harboring wind slabs will have a textured surface, feel noticeably denser, possibly hollow sounding with cracking and shooting cracks a sign of instability. Higher quality snow and safer avalanche conditions are found in areas sheltered from the wind.

Forecast discussion

With decreasing winds, sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures observations of the recent Arctic wind event are trickling in. Natural wind slab avalanches have been noted in Cascadilla Creek and on Mt Brown with intentionally triggered slides on Mt Brown and in Wahoo Creek. On Mt Brown, I noticed slabs on southeast through northwest aspects that were generally firm (4F to 1F hard) and not adhering to the underlying low-density snow, sun crust, or firm wind-packed surface. Continued cold weather is slowing the strengthening process with these slabs. We have dropped the low-elevation danger rating to LOW but realize that slabs exist at this elevation but are isolated in distribution.

On slopes not affected by winds, the danger will generally be LOW. In this terrain, last weeks low-density snow is slowly settling out and providing safer and more enjoyable riding conditions. 

We have removed the Persistent Slab problem from our list of current avalanche problems due to not seeing or hearing about signs of instability in over a week, we are currently in a benign weather pattern and the slab is starting to decay in the shallowest/most suspect areas due to the recent cold snap.  

 

Weather and CURRENT CONDITIONS
weather summary

Another beautiful but cold day on tap as an arctic air mass remains in our area. Sunshine, well below normal temperatures, and light winds are expected today and tomorrow.

Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast Produced in partnership with the Missoula NWS
For 5000 ft. to 7000 ft.
Monday Monday Night Tuesday
Cloud Cover: Clear Mostly clear Clear
Temperatures: 5 to 10 deg. F. -10 to 0 deg. F. 15 to 25 deg. F.
Wind Direction: Northeast Northeast Northeast
Wind Speed: 5 to 10 mph 5 to 10 mph 5 to 10 mph
Snowfall: 0" in. 0" in. 0" in.
Snow Line: 0' 0' 0'
Disclaimer

This forecast applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast expires at midnight on the posted day unless otherwise noted. The information in this forecast is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.