THIS AVALANCHE FORECAST EXPIRED ON December 24, 2018 @ 11:58 pm
Avalanche Forecast published on December 24, 2018 @ 6:58 am
Issued by Mark Dundas - Flathead National Forest

Flathead Range and Glacier National Park

How to read the forecast

Our avalanche problem remains thick slabs of snow capping deeply buried weak layers. Terrain selection is key for avoidance. Steep leeward terrain is most suspect with wind sheltered slopes a safer bet.  Continue to evaluate snow and terrain.

2. Moderate

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Above 6500 ft.
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

2. Moderate

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5000-6500 ft.
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

1. Low

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3500-5000 ft.
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
    Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
  • 1. Low
  • 2. Moderate
  • 3. Considerable
  • 4. High
  • 5. Extreme
Avalanche Problem 1: Persistent Slab
  • Type ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

Field observations continue to note buried weak layers in the middle and bottom of our snowpack. These layers are most concerning when capped by a strong slab of snow. Persistent slabs are notorious for their unpredictability. They can be remotely triggered and produce unusually wide avalanches. Terrain selection is the easiest and safest way to manage this problem.  Areas of concern are steep wind-loaded and cross-loaded slopes where a thick hard slab rests on weak layers. Terrain sheltered from the wind is a safer option. 

Forecast discussion

Field observations continue to find deeply buried weak layers throughout our area. But, we have not received reports of avalanche activity involving these layers since last Tuesday's storm. Instabilities are becoming sporadic with isolated cracking and collapsing (whoomphing). Snowpit stability tests show propagation on weak buried snow with moderate force.  Overnight new snow and wind will place a load on these layers.  The best solution for dealing with persistent slabs is terrain selection. Steep wind-loaded terrain harbors weak layers under a thick hard slab. Gladed slopes sheltered from the wind offer a safer option.

Light snow and wind overnight have freshened up the snow surface. We are not listing storm slab as a problem today but deeper drifts of snow will be on the leeward sides of ridgelines and on cross-loaded slopes.  Be alert for cracking in the surface snow where thin slabs are developing. Small loose dry avalanches may be triggered on steep terrain. Be cognizant of overhead hazards and when traveling above terrain traps.

We are offering an Avalanche Awareness talk Thursday, December 27 at Stumptown Snowboards at 7:00 p.m.!  We are offering a Motorized Level 1- Avalanche Fundamentals course January 11-13!

Weather and CURRENT CONDITIONS
weather summary

Snow showers will be tapering off this morning. Light winds, seasonal temperatures, and partly cloudy skies expected through Christmas Day.

Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast Produced in partnership with the Missoula NWS
For 5000 ft. to 7000 ft.
Monday Monday Night Tuesday
Cloud Cover: Cloudy Partly cloudy Partly cloudy
Temperatures: 22 to 27 deg. F. 7 to 12 deg. F. 20 to 25 deg. F.
Wind Direction: Southwest Southeast Northeast
Wind Speed: 5 to 10, gusting to 20 mph 5 to 10, gusting to 15 mph 5 to 10, gusting to 15
Snowfall: 0 to 2" in. 0 in. 0 in.
Snow Line: 2500 ft 1500 ft 1000 ft
Disclaimer

This forecast applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast expires at midnight on the posted day unless otherwise noted. The information in this forecast is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.