A much-anticipated Thanksgiving pattern change is underway today.  A series of increasingly potent Pacific storms will move over the Western US over the next two days.  The brunt of the action is forecasted to steer south of our region, but we are still looking at Thanksgiving leftovers in the 5"-9" range by Saturday morning.  The southern Swan Range has the best chance at grabbing an extra scoop of gravy and could see double digit snow totals.  Southwest winds will be blowing in the mid-teens, gusting to 40 mph.  

Coming out of a prolonged dry spell, our snow surface has grown weak and faceted.  Feathery surface hoar layers are capping sugary, faceted snow (Example A, Example B).  Forecasted storm totals are a little too meager for a knock-out punch this holiday weekend, but these layers will become reactive to human triggers if we pick up enough new snow for slab formation.  Wind loaded slopes will be the first terrain features to become a problem. Watch for sensitive slabs below fresh cornices or in crossloaded gullies.   If we see the high end of snow forecasts, we may see instabilities becoming more widespread into wind protected terrain.  Most wind and storm slab instabilities will be localized to high elevations, where there is more terrain with smooth snow coverage.  Many mid and low elevation slopes are too brushy for avalanche concerns at the moment, but be cautious of open, unvegetated slopes such as road cuts or gulley walls if we get more than 6" of new snow.  

This is an early season snowpack update. The FAC will continue to monitor conditions and update information as conditions warrant.  Daily advisories will begin in December. If you are traveling in the high country, send us an observation!