THIS AVALANCHE FORECAST EXPIRED ON March 24, 2018 @ 12:11 am
Avalanche Forecast published on March 23, 2018 @ 7:11 am
Issued by Chris Bilbrey - Flathead Avalanche Center

Whitefish Range
Swan Range
Flathead Range and Glacier National Park

How to read the forecast

Rain, snow, and wind could make triggering an avalanche in the upper layers of snow possible today. Storm instabilities may exist from new snow falling on a variety of surfaces. Watch for surface cracks and steer around lens-shaped drifts on leeward slopes and steep, convex terrain. 

2. Moderate

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Above 6500 ft.
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

1. Low

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5000-6500 ft.
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

1. Low

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3500-5000 ft.
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
    Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
  • 1. Low
  • 2. Moderate
  • 3. Considerable
  • 4. High
  • 5. Extreme
Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slab
  • Type ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

Moderate southwest winds with strong gusts accompanied the cold front passage overnight along with a transition from light rain to snow. Weather stations are reporting rain or a rain-snow mix up to 6000 ft with light snow accumulations (1 – 4”) throughout the advisory area. Thin, newly formed wind slabs may be reactive to the weight of a skier or rider at upper elevations. These slabs are most likely located below ridgelines and on steep convex or cross-loaded terrain. Look for cracks in the snow surface as a sign of instability and steer around lens-shaped drifts. This problem can be identified by hand pits and quickly test bonding of new snow. A small wind slab triggered in high consequence terrain can have a bad outcome.

Forecast discussion

Rain, snow, and moderate southwest winds describe the mountain weather over the past 24 hours. Weird weather can give way to weird avalanches, so remain diligent in your snowpack assessments despite light liquid and snow accumulations. Weather stations are reporting light rain (0.05 – 0.3”) up to 6000 ft yesterday with precipitation quickly changing to snow overnight. Snow accumulations range from 1 – 4” at upper elevations and lesser amounts at mid/ lower elevations. Wind can load slopes 10 times faster than snow falling from the sky, so anticipate deeper drifts of snow on leeward slopes from moderate southwest winds and strong gusts.

Mid/ lower elevations snow surfaces became wet from the rain yesterday but also experienced a short re-freeze overnight. This should make for challenging uphill and downhill travel today on a breakable surface crust. Cloud models are forecasting sunny skies today along with above freezing temps below 6000 ft. Combined with rain from yesterday, a small loose wet avalanche is unlikely but possible on sunny aspects that didn’t produce loose wet activity on Wednesday. Continue using caution around terrain traps, gullies, and cliffs with higher consequences.  

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Weather and CURRENT CONDITIONS
weather summary

Today is a transition day before another cold front along with snow and wind arrive overnight. Clear skies today should allow temps to warm into the upper 20's F above 6000 ft and upper 30's to lower 40's F below. Winds will be light to moderate out of the southwest with occasional gusts of 30 mph above 6000 ft. Widespread snowfall develops overnight and tomorrow with new snow accumulations of 3-5" with locally higher amounts.

Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast Produced in partnership with the Missoula NWS
For 5000 ft. to 7000 ft.
Friday Friday Night Saturday
Cloud Cover: Mostly clear trending to partly cloudy by afternoon Mostly cloudy Snow developing in the morning
Temperatures: 37 to 42 deg. F. 20 to 25 deg. F. 30 to 35 deg. F.
Wind Direction: SW S SW
Wind Speed: 10 to 15 mph gusting 25 mph 5 to 10 mph 10 to 15 mph gusting 30 mph
Snowfall: 0 in. 0 in. 2 to 3 in.
Snow Line:
Disclaimer

This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires at midnight on the posted day unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.