THIS AVALANCHE FORECAST EXPIRED ON January 14, 2018 @ 11:58 pm
Avalanche Forecast published on January 14, 2018 @ 6:58 am
Issued by Mark Dundas - Flathead National Forest

Recent substantial precipitation has created dangerous avalanche conditions in the Swan Range. Dense surface snow resting on lower density snow has resulted in a storm slab problem. Natural avalanche activity has diminished but a human triggered storm slab is likely on slopes steeper than 35 degrees at mid and upper elevations. Practice patience and safe travel techniques while our snowpack adjusts to this load.

3. Considerable

?

Above 6500 ft.
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

3. Considerable

?

5000-6500 ft.
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

2. Moderate

?

3500-5000 ft.
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
    Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
  • 1. Low
  • 2. Moderate
  • 3. Considerable
  • 4. High
  • 5. Extreme
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slab
  • Type ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

The dense snowfall Friday evening/Saturday morning was deposited on lower density snow creating an upside down storm layer. Natural activity has decreased but a human triggered slide is still likely on slopes steeper than 35º. At mid elevations this surface snow is resting on a rain crust which could act as a slippery bed surface. This is a snow surface problem and identifiable by cracking or collapsing under your feet or machine with hand pits identifying this snow structure. Test small inconsequential slopes before committing to larger steeper terrain and continue to use caution around terrain traps, steep rollovers, or in isolated wind-loaded slopes or gullies.

Forecast discussion

This weeks storm cycle ended with a bang Friday night/ Saturday with dense snowfall deposited on low density snow. 24 hour totals included 2.0" of SWE at the Noisy Basin Snotel in the Swan Range and up to 18" of snow at 6000' in the western Flathead Range. Observations were limited yesterday, but FAC staff noted a tender surface snowpack in the southern Whitefish Range with both natural and human triggered storm slabs up to 1 foot thick on steep terrain. A much larger avalanche cycle was observed in the western Flathead Range (see this observation) where both storm slabs and persistent slab avalanches occurred. We have listed the Persistent Slab problem in our daily advisory for the past 3 weeks but had seen little activity associated with these buried facet/crust layers. Avalanche activity yesterday confirms that we still have a weak snowpack structure capable of producing very large destructive avalanches in the Flathead and Whitefish Range along with southern Glacier Park. The western portion of the Flathead Range received substantial precipitation Friday night/Saturday morning and therefore has a more reactive storm slab problem than the eastern Flathead Range (east of Essex) and southern Glacier Park. Be diligent with snowpack evaluations, practice cautious route-finding with conservative decision-making essential when managing the uncertainty around this problem.

Weather and CURRENT CONDITIONS
weather summary



High pressure will continue to build over the region today and breaks in the cloud cover will be possible in some areas this afternoon. Starting tonight into Monday, a disturbance passing to our east will bring an increase in easterly winds across western Monday and possibly a few light snow showers near the Continental Divide.

 

Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast Produced in partnership with the Missoula NWS
For 5000 ft. to 7000 ft.
Sunday Sunday Night Monday
Cloud Cover: Mostly cloudy and mild Partial clearing and cool Partly sunny and cooler
Temperatures: 29 to 34 deg. F. 15 to 20 deg. F. 27 to 32 deg. F.
Wind Direction: W E E
Wind Speed: 1 to 11 mph with gusts to 16 1 to 11 mph 1 to 11 mph with gusts to 20
Snowfall: 0 in. 0 in. 0 in.
Snow Line:
Disclaimer

This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires at midnight on the posted day unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.