THIS AVALANCHE FORECAST EXPIRED ON March 8, 2017 @ 12:00 am
Avalanche Forecast published on March 7, 2017 @ 7:00 am
Issued by Adam Clark - Flathead Avalanche Center

Whitefish Range
Swan Range
Flathead Range and Glacier National Park

How to read the forecast

The avalanche danger is MODERATE above 5000 feet. Recent snowfall and winds continue to form wind slabs making it possible to trigger an avalanche on wind loaded slopes. Be cautious of all wind-loaded terrain today. Carefully evaluate the conditions before committing to a slope. Below 5000 feet the danger is LOW. Safe backcountry travel techniques should be practiced.

2. Moderate

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Above 6500 ft.
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

2. Moderate

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5000-6500 ft.
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

1. Low

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3500-5000 ft.
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
    Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
  • 1. Low
  • 2. Moderate
  • 3. Considerable
  • 4. High
  • 5. Extreme
Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slab
  • Type ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

West to southwest winds continue to drift snow onto leeward aspects. In some locations this snow is accumulating on older wind slabs formed over the past few days. Due to last week's abundant low density snow, some of these slabs are impressively thick. Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize, so err on the side of caution and carefully assess all wind-loaded slopes before committing to them. This problem should be mostly confined to terrain above 6000 feet, but be on the lookout for wind slabs at all elevations today. Favored windy locations such as spur ridges, tree islands, and rocky outcrops are all examples of terrain features that could harbor wind slabs. Identify wind loaded terrain by looking for smooth, rounded features on the snow surface. Shooting cracks are a tell-tale sign that the snow is unstable.

In many locations the wind and abundant snow formed large cornices. Keep a safe distance back from cornices while traveling above them and avoid traveling below them. Yesterday, skiers in the Whitefish Range triggered a cornice failure which is a great indication that some of these wind features are unstable.  

Forecast discussion

Thanks to everyone who joined us Saturday for an afternoon of companion rescue at Bonsai Brewing Project. Thanks to Jesco Marine and Power Sports and Bonsai Brewing Project for the great raffle prizes.

recent observations

Monday: Erich, Guy, and Zachtern toured up Skookaleel ridge in the southern Whitefish Range (observation). They noted the lack of wind slabs in the area, but were also travelling in more sheltered terrain. In three different snowpits dug on S, NE, and N aspects their extended column tests resulted in partial breaks under moderate force within the top 40-50 cm (16-20 inches) of the snowpack. But fractures did not propagate across the entire column. They did not see any recent avalanches save for one cornice fall that was intentionally triggered by another party. The group triggering the cornice noted that it broke out much larger than they expected. This same party of skiers also dug on a SE aspect at 6500 feet. They observed multiple fractures in the upper 60 cm of the snowpack, but no propagation in their extended column test. Skiers in the Apgar Range found about 115 cm of snow on top of the Feb. 10 crust and did not observe any signs of instability while touring or in their snowpit. They reported light to moderate winds and noted some cornice development above 6000 feet.

Sunday: Mark walked the ridge east of WMR where he noted storm snow instabilities within the recent moderate density snow that fell over the weekend. In exposed areas a thin wind slab was forming on the surface. Skiers in the Marion Lake area of the Flathead Range reported a sun crust 15-25 cm below the surface on southerly aspects. In their stability tests they had failure on the sun crust and propagation with hard force at 80 cm below the surface. Skiers in Wahoo Creek in the Flathead Range reported a 5 cm ice crust 60 cm from the surface which produced failures in their pit, but no propagation was observed. Skiers at the Challenge cabin in the Flathead Range reported a mixed bag of weather conditions Friday - Sunday. They also reported a sun crust that had formed on solar aspects which was subsequently buried by 25 cm of dense snow and was reactive with easy force. An upper elevation avalanche triggered by a cornice failure was observed.

See below for all observations this season.

Weather and CURRENT CONDITIONS
weather summary

Yesteday was colder with a few breaks in the clouds alternating with periods of intense snowfall. Over the past 24 hours another 2-5 inches of snow accumulated, with most of that falling yesterday morning through early afternoon. Overnight we picked up another 1-3 inches. Winds have been out of the southwest at 3-27 mph with gusts from 5-37 mph. Currently temperatures above 6000 feet range from 9 to 17 ºF with winds out of the west to southwest at 5-18 mph with gusts to 10-30 mph. Today we should see scattered snow showers with another 1-3 inches possible. Expect high temperatures to reach the upper teens to mid-20s ºF with continued light to moderate west to southwest winds with occasional strong gusts. Heavier snow is expected tonight into tomorrow.

Today’s weather observations near 6000 feet in the region
0600 temperature: 9 to 17 deg. F.
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 14 to 24 deg. F.
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: southwest
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 3-27 mph
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 5-37 mph
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 2-5 inches
Total snow depth: 96-130 inches
Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast Produced in partnership with the Missoula NWS
For 5000 ft. to 7000 ft.
Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday
Cloud Cover: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers Snow showers increasing Snow and increasing winds
Temperatures: 20 to 29 deg. F. 14 to 23 deg. F. 23 to 34 deg. F.
Wind Direction: west to southwest south to southeast southwest
Wind Speed: 9-11 with gusts to 23 mph 5-7 with gusts to 23 mph 13-15 with gusts to 29 mph
Snowfall: 0-1 in. 4-7 in. 1-3 in.
Snow Line:
Disclaimer

This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires at midnight on the posted day unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.