THIS AVALANCHE FORECAST EXPIRED ON January 21, 2017 @ 11:29 pm
Avalanche Forecast published on January 21, 2017 @ 6:29 am
Issued by Mark Dundas - Flathead National Forest

Whitefish Range
Swan Range
Flathead Range and Glacier National Park

How to read the forecast

Concerns in our snowpack remain with the variety of weak layers in our pack along with wind slabs that formed earlier in the week. The avalanche danger is MODERATE above 5000 feet. Human triggered avalanches are possible particularly on steep, wind loaded slopes and terrain with shallow snow where it is easier to affect deeper instabilities. Dig into the snow to look for these weak, faceted layers and carefully assess recently wind loaded terrain before committing to it.

2. Moderate

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Above 6500 ft.
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

2. Moderate

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5000-6500 ft.
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

1. Low

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3500-5000 ft.
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
    Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
  • 1. Low
  • 2. Moderate
  • 3. Considerable
  • 4. High
  • 5. Extreme
Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slab
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Earlier this week moderate to strong winds formed wind slabs on upper elevation slopes, particularly in the alpine. Decreasing wind speeds and warming temperatures over the past 2 days have helped to strengthen these slabs. However, all wind loaded terrain should be viewed with suspicion. Look for thick, smooth, and rounded pillows on the surface near ridgelines and terrain features that trap the wind drifted snow. Avoid steep, exposed slopes in the alpine that harbor these recent slabs. Also, keep in mind that even a small avalanche can trigger deeper instabilities resulting in a larger, more destructive slide.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slab
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Due to the combination of: low density snow, colder than normal temperatures and several intrusions of arctic air; our mid and basal snow pack contains a variety of weak layers. Recent warm weather has temporarily ended the continued weakening of these layers but the damage is done. Weak layers buried in the pack take a long time to strengthen and we will have to deal with these layers for some time. The only way to know if these layers exist beneath you is to dig into the snow and look for them. Where present avoid areas where you are more likely to trigger them like steep, rocky terrain. 

Impressive amounts of surface hoar formed last weekend and early this week on all aspects at all elevations. Much of it was destroyed by sun, wind and rain, but in some locations it remains preserved beneath a thin layer of recent snow. It would be a good idea to pay attention to where this layer exists as it could become a problem in the future with additional snow and slab formation above.

 

recent observations

Friday: Mark traveled to Rescue Creek in the Flathead Range where he saw evidence of a low elevation wet loose avalanche cycle that had occurred from the rain and warming event on Wednesday. We also noted a rain crust at all elevations and substantial brush that is still exposed at low and mid elevations. FAC staff (Guy, Adam and Zach) were in the Lost Johnny area of the Swan Range where they saw no evidence of recent avalanche activity. They did find buried surface hoar that was minimally reactive in their stability tests.

Tuesday:  Seth was in the Flathead Range on Scalplock Mountain above Essex in GNP. where he observed no obvious signs of instability and little results in stability tests on NE and SE aspects.  Poor structure to the snow pack with considerable depth hoar and other weak layers in the snow pack and widespread, sometimes very large surface hoar.

 

See below for all observations this season.

Weather and CURRENT CONDITIONS
weather summary

Yesterday, we enjoyed mild temperatures, periods of sun, and light winds. As of 5:00 a.m. temperatures above 6000 feet range from 16-26º F. Winds have changed direction and are currently out of the east-northeast at 2-7 mph with gusts from 4-13 mph. For today, expect partly cloudy skies with light snow showers entering our area this afternoon. Winds will continue with an easterly component at 0-5 mph. Light snow is expected tonight with mild temperatures.

 

Today’s weather observations near 6000 feet in the region
0600 temperature: 16-26 deg. F.
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 29-35 deg. F.
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: southwest
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 5-10 mph
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 8-14 mph
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 0 inches
Total snow depth: 52-69 inches
Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast Produced in partnership with the Missoula NWS
For 5000 ft. to 7000 ft.
Saturday Saturday Night Sunday
Cloud Cover: Partly cloudy with snow showers in the afternoon. Light snow showers. Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: 25-32 deg. F. 12-21 deg. F. 24-33 deg. F.
Wind Direction: Southeast South-Southwest Southeast
Wind Speed: 4 mph 3-4 mph 4-5 mph
Snowfall: 0 in. 0-1 in. 0 in.
Snow Line:
Disclaimer

This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires at midnight on the posted day unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.