THIS AVALANCHE FORECAST EXPIRED ON January 14, 2017 @ 12:00 am
Avalanche Forecast published on January 13, 2017 @ 7:00 am
Issued by Todd Hannan - Flathead National Forest

Whitefish Range
Swan Range
Flathead Range and Glacier National Park

How to read the forecast

Today the avalanche danger is MODERATE above 5000 feet. Human triggered avalanches are possible.  Variable wind direction over the past week created slabs on multiple aspects. Carefully evaluate wind loaded terrain before committing to a slope. Additionally, weak snow exists deep in the snow pack so lower your odds of triggering a deeper layer by avoiding steep, rocky terrain and slopes with a shallow snow pack.

2. Moderate

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Above 6500 ft.
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

2. Moderate

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5000-6500 ft.
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

1. Low

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3500-5000 ft.
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
    Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
  • 1. Low
  • 2. Moderate
  • 3. Considerable
  • 4. High
  • 5. Extreme
Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slab
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Wind speeds moderated over the past 48 hours but wind slabs can take as long as a week to strengthen. These recent slabs formed on a variety of surfaces like light, soft snow, firm, older slabs and wind scoured ridgelines. Given the variable surfaces that these slabs were formed on continue to carefully assess wind loaded terrain before committing to it. Also, keep in mind the potential for small avalanches to stress deeper weak layers resulting in deeper slides. Wind loaded slopes are easily identified by looking for smooth, rounded features on the surface.

 

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slab
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A series of cold, dry periods throughout the winter formed weak snow that now exists in the mid and lower snow pack. Early this week up to 20 inches of snow fell which added stress to these layers. We have seen very little avalanche activity associated with these deeper instabilities this season and they have been stubborn in most stability tests. This makes these layers a low probability but high consequence scenario.  Dig into the snow and look for weak layers in the snowpack. Where you find them, choose simple terrain and avoid areas where you are more likely to trigger a deeper avalanche like steep, shallow, rocky areas.

Forecast discussion

We are deeply saddened to report that a skier sustained fatal injuries in an avalanche accident on Stanton Mountain in Glacier National Park Thursday, 01/05/2017. We extend our most sincere condolences to the family and friends.  FAC staff, along with Glacier National Park Rangers, vistited the site on Friday. We will provide a complete report of their findings within a few days.


Join us tonight,  January 13 at The Stonefly Lounge, in Coram, at 7:00 pm for a free, engaging, and entertaining 1 hour avalanche awareness presentation. 

recent observations

Wednesday, BNSF Avalanche Safety reported recent avalanche activity in the John F Stevens Canyon in wind loaded terrain. Recent storm slab avalanche activity was reported in an area known as Dorothy's in the southern Whitefish Range. We were in the Cascade Creek drainage in the Flathead Range and found remnant crown lines from storm slabs that released earlier in the week. Wind was calm in this area and we could only see minimal drifting on surrounding peaks.Also on Wednesday, skiers were on Sub-Shields in the Lewis Range of Glacier National Park they found generally unconsolidated surface snow, atypical wind loading patterns, and evidence of recent cornice fall. They noted weak snow deep in the snow pack that was minimally reactive in stability tests. 

Tuesday:  Seth traveled to Kimmerly Basin and found 6 to 10 inches of new snow from the Sunday/Monday storm.  Winds from the southwest were actively transporting snow on exposed slopes.  A shallow snowpack with depth hoar, but little reaction in stability tests was found on a sw aspect while a much deeper, wind loaded snowpack was found on an east aspect.  One to two feet of new and wind loaded snow was on top of a weaker layer of snow that fell on Saturday night.  This layer failed and propagated with moderate to hard force and we suspect this is the same layer that failed in the natural avalanche that occurred adjacent to the pit location while we were in the pit.

 

See below for all observations this season.

Weather and CURRENT CONDITIONS
weather summary

Valley clouds lingered for most of the day yesterday and temperatures remained cold. Currently temperatures above 6000 range from 6-14º F , and winds are 6-12 mph gusting to 11-20 mph out of the southwest. Today we may see low clouds clear out mid-morning. Temperatures are expected to rise to the mid-teens, and winds will remain out of the west - southwest at at 5-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.

Today’s weather observations near 6000 feet in the region
0600 temperature: 6-14 deg. F.
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 8-25 deg. F.
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: southwest
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 5-12 mph
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 12-24 mph
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 0 inches
Total snow depth: 53-73 inches
Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast Produced in partnership with the Missoula NWS
For 5000 ft. to 7000 ft.
Friday Friday Night Saturday
Cloud Cover: Partly sunny and cool. Cold and clear. Mostly clear and cool.
Temperatures: 7-19 deg. F. -10-6 deg. F. 14-24 deg. F.
Wind Direction: Southwest-West Southwest-West Southwest
Wind Speed: 6-7 5-7 5-8 gusts 20
Snowfall: 0 in. 0 in. 0 in.
Snow Line:
Disclaimer

This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires at midnight on the posted day unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.