THIS AVALANCHE FORECAST EXPIRED ON March 23, 2016 @ 11:58 pm
Avalanche Forecast published on March 23, 2016 @ 6:58 am
Issued by Mark Dundas - Flathead National Forest

Whitefish Range
Swan Range
Flathead Range and Glacier National Park

How to read the forecast

Thin fresh wind slabs will continue to form through the day on top of a crust in many locations. Older wind slabs also rest on deeper crusts. Large cornices exist and should be treated as suspect. Weak snow near a series of crusts in the upper snowpack should also be assessed before committing to a slope. The avalanche danger is MODERATE above 6000 feet on steep wind loaded terrain. 

2. Moderate

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Above 6500 ft.
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

1. Low

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5000-6500 ft.
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

1. Low

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3500-5000 ft.
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
    Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
  • 1. Low
  • 2. Moderate
  • 3. Considerable
  • 4. High
  • 5. Extreme
Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slab
  • Type ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

Older wind slabs can be found at upper elevation locations of our area. Skiers in the Flathead Range reported recent wind slab avalanches triggered by both cornice fall and glide crack failure (imageimage). The close call on Peak 6996 involved a human triggered wind slab sitting on top of a rain crust capped by faceted snow (observation). Older wind slabs have had time to gain strength but in many locations they are resting on crusts or in some instances weak snow on top of a crust.

Light snow over the past 24 hours and into today, combined with light winds, will form thin wind slabs on upper elevation leeward aspects. Many of these slabs will be deposited onto a melt freeze crust formed Sunday. The new snow is relatively low density and will not adhere well to the underlying crust and I expect them to become more reactive to a skier or rider as the day progresses. 

Forecast discussion

Additional concerns: Although we have not received any reports of avalanches failing on weak layers deeper in the snowpack we cannot write these layers off just yet. This weak snow surrounds a series of crusts that are 1.5 to 3 feet from the surface. Digging into the snow and performing stability tests is the only way to determine if this weak layer exists. Stability tests in some locations show they still have the potential to break across a slope (video1video2). Where you find weak, faceted snow around these crusts it is important to choose appropriate terrain as it is possible to trigger an avalalanche. Put the odds in your favor by avoiding steep, convex roll-overs, and rocky terrain where the snowpack is notoriously shallow.

Recent observations report both natural and human triggered cornice fall. We have observed some impressive cornices across the area. The huge amount of stress a falling cornice puts on the snowpack can trigger deeper weak layers like wind slabs or weak snow around the late February crust. Skiers near Mt. Grant observed cornice fall and subsequent slab avalanches Saturday. Skiers in the Avalanche Lake area reported massive amounts of cornice blocks that had fallen over the past week. Cornices can release farther behind the ridgeline than expected so it is important to keep a safe distance when traveling above them and limit your exposure time when traveling below. 

As we progress into a spring snowpack glide crack formation and failure will become more prevalent. A recent glide crack avalanche was reported in the Flathead Range over the weekend (image). Due to their unpredictable nature it is best to avoid all slopes with glide cracks on them. 

recent observations

Tuesday: I visited Peak 6996 in southern Glacier Park to follow up on the avalanche incident from last Friday. We noted that a 18" wind slab was human triggered which then initiated a cornice fall. This slab sat on top of a thin layer of facets which capped a recent rain crust. There was a surface melt freeze crust formed Sunday that extended from valley floor to the summit (observation). 

Monday: I traveled to the Canyon Creek area of the southern Whitefish Range. We noted that during our ski descent on shaded aspects we initiated numerous pinwheels/rollerballs and small wet loose slides on top of a rain crust. We also observed several glide cracks on south facing terrain which had initially formed several weeks ago (observation).  

Sunday: Skiers in the Avalanche Lake drainage of Glacier Park reported sizable wet loose activity from Saturday and also observed sizable wet loose slides during their tour (observation). Multiple parties of skiers in the Whitefish Range and the Flathead Range reported wet, loose avalanches up to size D2 (observations).

Saturday:  Skiers in the Mount Grant vicinity in the Flathead Range reported wind slab, glide, and wet loose, natural avalanches that occurred yesterday (observation). A glide crack failed on smooth rock slabs that triggered a shallower slab (image). Another party of skiers in the Skiumah Drainage observed natural avalanche activity on north and northwest aspects on Mt. Penrose. Skiers on Elk Mountain in southern Glacier Park observed strong wind transporting snow along high ridgelines. 

Friday: A skier on Peak 6996 near Marias Pass in the Flathead Range unintentionally broke two large blocks of cornice and was subsequently caught in a small soft slab avalanche. The cornice triggered an avalanche that propagated 40-60 feet across the slope and ran about 400 feet. The skier was caught and reported that he "got a little beat up" (observation). 

Visit our Observations page and our You Tube channel for more observations from the entire season.

 

 

Thanks to everyone for submitting observations. They are extremely useful and could help save lives. 

HOW TO SUBMIT OBSERVATIONS:

Email: [email protected]

Call and leave a message: 406.387.3821

You can also submit quick observations via text: 406.241.4571 (FAC mobile)

OR

Submit Snowpack Observations: http://www.flatheadavalanche.org/node/add/snowobs

Submit Avalanche Observations: http://www.flatheadavalanche.org/node/add/avyobs

Weather and CURRENT CONDITIONS
weather summary

Yesterday, we experienced another day of seasonal temperatures with most upper elevation stations reporting max temps in the low 30s to low 40s. We received up to 2 inches of new snow at mountain weather stations across the area over the past 24 hours. Currently, mountain temperatures are 24º-31º F with winds out of the west-southwest at 3-10 mph with gusts from 6-14 mph and many locations are reporting light snow. Continued light snow showers are on tap for today with temperatures topping out in the low to mid 30's at upper elevation locations. A more potent strom system will enter our area tomorrow bringing potentially heavy snow and strong winds.

Today’s weather observations near 6000 feet in the region
0600 temperature: 24-31 deg. F.
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 31-42 deg. F.
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: SW
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 5-15 mph
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 12-23 mph
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 0-2 inches
Total snow depth: 79-104 inches
Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast Produced in partnership with the Missoula NWS
For 5000 ft. to 7000 ft.
Wednesday Wednesday Night Thursday
Cloud Cover: Light snow showers Light snow showers Snow and windy
Temperatures: 34-45 deg. F. 26-31 deg. F. 35-42 deg. F.
Wind Direction: W-SW SW SW
Wind Speed: 10-12 gusts 23-25 11-12 gusts 23-28 17-19 gusts 36-47
Snowfall: 0-2 in. 0-1 in. 2-7 in.
Snow Line:
Disclaimer

This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires at midnight on the posted day unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.