THIS AVALANCHE FORECAST EXPIRED ON December 29, 2015 @ 12:01 am
Avalanche Forecast published on December 28, 2015 @ 7:01 am
Issued by Mark Dundas - Flathead National Forest

Whitefish Range
Swan Range
Flathead Range and Glacier National Park

How to read the forecast

The avalanche danger above 6000 feet is CONSIDERABLE on wind loaded slopes steeper than 35º. Elsewhere, the danger is MODERATE. In select areas of our advisory area recent winds have been strong enough to drift the light, cohesionless surface snow and form new wind slabs on leeward ridges, and cross-load mid slope features. Carefully evaluate wind loaded terrain today before skiing or riding a slope.

3. Considerable

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Above 6500 ft.
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

2. Moderate

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5000-6500 ft.
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

2. Moderate

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3500-5000 ft.
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
    Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
  • 1. Low
  • 2. Moderate
  • 3. Considerable
  • 4. High
  • 5. Extreme
Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slab
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Large portions of our advisory area have not been affected by wind both during and following the recent storm cycle.  Therefore these areas do not have a wind slab avalanche problem.  However, select locations saw an increase in wind speeds yesterday morning that would easily transport the  light cohesionless surface snow and form soft wind slabs along leeward slopes and cross-load mid slope terrain features. As you approach the continental divide wind speeds increased and over the past few days we have received multiple reports of wind transporting snow along upper elevation ridges in southern Glacier Park and the Flathead Range. Hornet Lookout weather station, in the northern Whitefish Range, also reported wind speeds of sufficient strength to transport surface snow.  Recent wind slabs are identified by a smooth, rounded appearance and the snow will look thicker than other areas. Be sure to carefully assess wind-loaded slopes before skiing or riding in them. 

Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Dry
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The abundant new snow over the past week came in light and cohesionless making excellent skiing and riding conditions. This snow is settling out but there is still a lot of loose surface snow on most aspects at all elevations.  In steep terrain the potential to trigger loose dry avalanches still exists.  These sluffs occur underneath your skis, board or machine and therefore you have a chance to manage them.  However, if they catch you off guard, they can have severe consequences like knocking you off your feet and into trees, rocks, and cliffs. If the runout is in a confined area like a narrow gully they could even bury a person.

Forecast discussion

Given the recent test in the form of a substantial load added to the weak snow above and below the the December 9 rain crust it is unlikely to trigger an avalanche on this layer, but not impossible. In many recent observations this layer is decomposing and not producing results in stabilty tests, however it is still worth taking the time to dig into the snow and see how it is reacting in the areas that you are skiing or riding. In some locations in the Flathead Range, Glacier Park, and parts of the Swan Range we noted and have received observations of weak, sugary snow near the ground. In some places it breaks and propagates across a column in stability tests, and sometimes it doesn't even break. Though it appears very isolated in distribution, it is worth mentioning that skiers in the southern Whitefish Range found buried surface hoar last Sunday which further illustrates the importance of digging in the snow to see what is going on below you.

recent observations

We received a handful of observations from the holiday weekend and THANK YOU for those.

Yesterday, we received a report from the ridgeline east of the WMR ski area.  Skiers reported surface snow in this area as light, deep and cohesionless and were able to observe wind transporting snow on Great Northern Mountain  in the Flathead Range.

Saturday, skiers in the Stryker Ridge area of the northern Whitefish Range reported deep cohesionless snow with no signs of wind affect.  They skied northeast aspects above 6000' and reported lots of sluffing of the surface snow but no other obvious signs of instability.

Todd and I headed into Noisy Basin in the Swan Range on Saturday. The snow was deep and unconsolidated (photo). When there were breaks in the clouds, we observed several natural loose, dry avalanches that had recently occured in steep terrain. Very minimal, recent wind drifted snow on the ridge that we traveled, but evidence of recent wind-loading at higher elevations on surrounding peaks.

Skiers in Canyon Creek and Half Moon, both in the southern Whitefish Range found deep, unconsolidated snow with no obvious sign of instability. The party on Half Moon noted weak, faceted snow near the ground that did not react in stability testing.

Skiers on Elk Mountain in southern Glacier National Park noted wind transporting snow on surrounding peaks and ridge lines. The surface snow on sheltered aspects was unconsolidated. Snow depth at 6200 feet was 3.5 feet deep and they did not find the December 9 rain crust in this location. A seperate skier party on Elk Mountain also reported that there was no rain crust present. Stabililty tests produced failures but with out propagation within recent storm snow (observation).

On Thursday, experienced snowmobilers in the Lost Johnny area observed shooting cracks, which is an obvious sign of instability, in the recent storm snow.  They reported a DEEP (3-5 feet) snowpack at lower elevations.  This same party were also able to hear a large avalanche in the distance.

Visit our Observations page and our You Tube channel for more information from the entire season.

Please let us know what you are seeing out there. Your observations are important and valued.

HOW TO SUBMIT OBSERVATIONS:

Email: [email protected]

Call and leave a message: 406.387.3821

You can also submit quick observations via text: 406.241.4571 (FAC mobile)

OR

Submit Snowpack Observations: http://www.flatheadavalanche.org/node/add/snowobs

Submit Avalanche Observations: http://www.flatheadavalanche.org/node/add/avyobs

Weather and CURRENT CONDITIONS
weather summary

Yesterday was a partly sunny cool dry day.  In most locations wind was light out of the southwest with portions of the northern Whitefish Range, the Flathead Range and Southern Glacier Park receiving moderate winds during the morning hours. Currently, temperatures above 6000 feet range from 15º-22º F and winds are out of the southwest at 2-12 mph with gusts up to 15 mph. Today, expect light snow showers and temperatures rising to the mid to upper 20's. Winds will be light out of the southwest at 4-5 mph with stronger gusts on the ridges.

Today’s weather observations near 6000 feet in the region
0600 temperature: 15-22 deg. F.
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 15-24 deg. F.
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: SW
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 1-21 mph
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 4-27 mph
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 0-1 inches
Total snow depth: 53-68 inches
Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast Produced in partnership with the Missoula NWS
For 5000 ft. to 7000 ft.
Monday Monday Night Tuesday
Cloud Cover: Light snow showers. Very light snow showers . A few snow showers.
Temperatures: 21-29 deg. F. 7-16 deg. F. 19-27 deg. F.
Wind Direction: SW E SE
Wind Speed: 4-5 mph 7-8 mph 3-4 mph
Snowfall: 1-2 in. 1 in. 0-1 in.
Snow Line:
Disclaimer

This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires at midnight on the posted day unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.