THIS AVALANCHE FORECAST EXPIRED ON March 1, 2015 @ 11:51 pm
Avalanche Forecast published on March 1, 2015 @ 6:51 am
Issued by Todd Hannan - Flathead National Forest

Whitefish Range
Swan Range
Flathead Range and Glacier National Park

How to read the forecast

The Hazard above 6000 feet is MODERATE on wind loaded slopes steeper than 35º and LOW on all other terrain. Generally safe conditions exist in most terrain, but a few lingering concerns remain. Recently formed wind slabs are still sensitive to human triggers in steep terrain. In some areas, surface hoar formed over the late-January crust remains reactive. It is unlikely to trigger a persistent slab avalanche, but not impossible. Continue to evaluate the snowpack for weak and reactive layers.

2. Moderate

?

Above 6500 ft.
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

1. Low

?

5000-6500 ft.
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

1. Low

?

3500-5000 ft.
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
    Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
  • 1. Low
  • 2. Moderate
  • 3. Considerable
  • 4. High
  • 5. Extreme
Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slab
  • Type ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

The western portion of the advisory area harbors substantially thinner wind slabs than in areas near the Continental Divide where they are thicker and more dangerous. The moderating wind speeds in the past 24 hours provided a "day off" for these recently formed slabs to settle and adjust. They are already showing signs of improvement, but it is still early, and it remains possible for humans to trigger them in steep terrain. These slabs are easy to identify and avoid (photo), and are fairly small relative to the size of the slope. In most locations they seem confined to just below ridgelines and cross loaded terrain features (photo). Look for rounded pillows of wind drifted snow and where present, avoid convex roll-overs or terrain where getting knocked off of your feet or machine could have high consequence.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slab
  • Type ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

The late January surface hoar (or facet) and crust layer 1.5-2.5 feet from the surface still exists in our advisory area. Stability test results are variable. In some locations it propagates a fracture and others it does not even fracture, and the distibution is spotty. We haven't observed or received reports of avalanche activity involving this layer in nearly 3 weeks. This makes it unlikely, but not impossible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche. It's still important to dig into the snowpack and identify if the layer is present or not by performing a stability test like the extended column test. If it is reactive keep the slope angle less than 35 degrees and avoid steep, rocky terrain where you are more likely to trigger this layer. Also, please let us know what you find out there. We would love to know where you find this surface hoar and if it is reactive, but also where you do not find it.

recent observations

Despite the cold temperatures in the morning, it was a beautiful day in the northern Whitefish Range yesterday. We skied and rode in the Red Meadow Lake/Whitefish Mountain area. Along ridgelines and cross loaded features we found recently formed wind slabs that were substantially thinner than we observed in the Skyland Area on Friday (photo,video). Though these slabs were thin and gaining strength, they were still sensitive to human triggering in steep terrain. Stability tests in several snow pits did not produce unstable results on any deeper weak layers in this area. Other recent observations continue to show a spotty and variable distribution of weak snow 1.5-2 feet deep.

Weather and CURRENT CONDITIONS
weather summary

I hope yesterday's sunny skies cheered everyone up from the lack of recent snow. This morning temperatures are a few degrees warmer than they started off yesterday. Currently, mountain temperatures range from -1º-11º F, the wind shifted and is blowing 5-8 mph out of the south/southeast. Today should start mostly sunny with light south/southwest winds, temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday, rising to the high 20s. Clouds start to build in the area in the afternoon, and by late morning tomorrow we could see some new snow.

Today’s weather observations near 6000 feet in the region
0600 temperature: -1-11 deg. F.
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 15-22 deg. F.
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: NE
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 5-10 mph
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 10-15 mph
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 0 inches
Total snow depth: 64-91 inches
Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast Produced in partnership with the Missoula NWS
For 5000 ft. to 7000 ft.
Sunday Sunday Night Monday
Cloud Cover: Mostly sunny and cool, becoming partly cloudy Partly cloudy Colder, return of snow.
Temperatures: 26-36 deg. F. 11-19 deg. F. 20-28 deg. F.
Wind Direction: S/SW S/SW W/NE
Wind Speed: 5-6 5-10 gust 22 5-7 gusts 15
Snowfall: 0 in. 0 in. 2-3 in.
Snow Line:
Disclaimer

This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires at midnight on the posted day unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.