Avalanche Forecast published on November 24, 2014 @ 5:06 pm
Issued by Erich Peitzsch - Flathead National Forest

Whitefish Range
Swan Range
Flathead Range and Glacier National Park

How to read the forecast

A bit of new snow and wind with more snow on the way tonight through Tuesday night. This new snow will bury the weak snow that formed during the cold snap last week creating unstable conditions. Don't let early season powder fever ruin the whole season. Pay attention to obvious clues such as recent avalanche activity, cracking, and collapsing. 

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Above 6500 ft.

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5000-6500 ft.

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3500-5000 ft.
Forecast discussion

The snow that accumulated over the weekend combined with new snow over the next two days is falling onto very weak snow. The extended cold snap last week created weak snow (facets). The steep temperature gradient from the warm ground to the cold air drove the development of this weak snow with such a shallow snowpack. This weak snow is like sugar when you put it in your hands. You can't make a snowball out of it and it just falls out of your hands. Now, this next storm with all of its new snow and wind will put the slab on this weak layer. All of the right ingredients are there for an avalanche to occur (steep slopes, weak layer, and slab). It's just waiting for the right trigger (either a human or more snow/rain). 

Even though it's still November avalanches can still happen whether you are riding, skiing, hunting, or ice climbing. Carry your avalanche gear (beacon, shovel, and probe) with you. When you are in the backcountry it's important to pay attention to obvious signs of instability like recent avalanche activity, cracking of the snowpack, and whumpfing (collapsing). Also, with a shallow early season snowpack any avalanche could take you for a nasty ride over rocks and stumps. Ask yourself if early season turns are worth it before committing to any steep slope. Since it is early season, it's a great time to poke around in the snow and see what it looks like. It's not very deep yet, so snowpits shouldn't take very long.

It's also a good idea to start brushing away the cobwebs in the part of your brain that thinks about avalanches, and attend one of the upcoming classes this fall (calendar). We conduct avalanche awareness classes for both motorized and non-motorized audiences. Many of these classes are hosted by local shops and retailers, and we appreciate their support in helping educate backcountry users.

While you are dreaming about powder-filled slopes you might also check out the online tutorials under the Education tab. There are a number of resources from the National Avalanche Center and the American Avalanche Association. There is also a great tutorial from Avalanche Canada as well as their Throttle Decisions video series. 

Also, the Friends of the Flathead Avalanche Center (FOFAC) host this website and are passionate about supporting FAC and avalanche education in northwest Montana. Learn more about FOFAC and their mission. They are also hosting a Snowball on Saturday, December 6, 2014 at the Great Northern Bar and Grill. Joing them and us in kicking off the winter!

We are currently getting a handle on the snowpack. We intend to issue our first advisory December 6, and, until then, will provide updates as conditions warrant. If you are out in the backcountry please send us your observations by submitting them on the Observations page, emailing us at [email protected], or by calling 406.387.3835. 

 

recent observations

Observations from Big Mountain in the southern Whitefish Range indicate new snow and wind slabs sitting on top of weak snow (facets). 

Weather and CURRENT CONDITIONS
weather summary

New snow totals last weekend reached up to 10 inches. Tonight, a surge of Pacific moisture will enter the areas bringing widespread snow. Snow accumulations in the mountains will range from 10-20 inches by Wednesday. Snow level is expected to rise tomorrow before falling again tomorrow night. Winds will be out of the south-southwest at 10-20 mph with greater gusts. 

You may have noticed that the Big Mountain Summit weather station reported very high gust values. The wind sensor requires a new component and, until then, the wind speed values may tend to be much higher than actual values. We'll let you know once we resolve the issue.

Today’s weather observations near 6000 feet in the region
0600 temperature: 19-27 deg. F.
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 21-29 deg. F.
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: SSW
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 7-19 mph
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 19-35 mph
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 7 inches
Total snow depth: 25-29 inches
Disclaimer

This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires at midnight on the posted day unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.